Nigeria's return to democracy in 1999 meant a fresh start. However, the past weighs heavily on the democratic experiment: the country has endured six successful and numerous failed military coups, a civil war that cost well over a million lives, three inconclusive transitions to democracy and recurrent factional violence. Widespread corruption and persistent electoral malpractice continue to undermine politics as a whole. Military rule has cast a long shadow, and Nigeria remains dangerously reliant on oil receipts and mired in patron-client networks. New challenges have arisen, with inter-communal clashes across the country causing more than 14,000 deaths since 1999 and displacing more than three million. Militias have sprung up, notably in the oil-rich Niger Delta, where growing tensions are a direct result of decades of environmental harm and political neglect. Concurrently, Nigeria is striving to assert its political weight in West Africa, across the African continent and beyond. It is all too easy for the world to perceive it only as a major world oil producer and a regional policeman. The year 2007 is definitely going to be the most important year in the history of Nigeria. With the global movement of autonomous economies towards democracy to enable backward and globally marginalized nations to quickly revitalize their economies in other to translate themselves into equal partners in the new economic order, as well as to guarantee more dividends delivery in the palatial economies of the Western world, one can only imagine the predicament of the African people. Although democracy, even among the so – called successful ones of the developing world has not brought the most anticipated dividends to its citizenry, especially those in Africa, particularly Nigeria, owing to, principally undue emphasis on the form of democracy rather than its essence, the deteriorating predicament notwithstanding, the situation does not defy solution as some Western scholars would want us to believe. Looking at the Nigerian case among so many in Africa, one would, but wonder why such an economy could not achieve an economic turn around in almost eight years of democratic structure; but figures on inflation, interest rate and per capita income and other important economic indicators are falsified. But here comes again an election period. The first in the history of the country where a civilian would hand over to another civilian since 1999 (the closest to that was in 2003, but the incumbent could not be defeated). There is however the high possibility that the incumbent will significantly influence the outcome of the elections’ results. This is more so as was demonstrated in the latest PDP Convention held in December 2006 in the city of Abuja. PDP is the self – acclaimed largest political party on the continent of Africa, a party through which the imcumbent president came to power. Originally, Aso Rocks’ (the Presidency’s) directive was that the party’s Presidential flag bearer should be given to an incumbent governor. Although almost all the 28 PDP Governors out of the 36 of the federation had shown interest to contest for the presidency, Baba (Obasanjo) through the PDP Governors Forum prevailed in the selection of Yar ‘adu, the current Governor of Katsina State. Today, there are speculations that the presidency may tinker with her earlier selection of the PDP’s flag bearer. This was because the permutations of the party strategist failed to make allowance for the possibility of General Buhari securing the ANPP’s flag for the presidential election. ANPP is by virtue of the Nigerian political economy, the second largest political party. Why the Presidency together with her gamut of strategist thought Buhari will not secure the ANPPs’ presidential ticket will require analysis and explanation far beyond the scope of this article. But on why the presidency wants to tinker with the ticket given to Yar’adu, is simply because they thought that Yar’adu, the governor of Katsina State and his running mate, Goodluck Jonathan are no match for General Buhari. Of course, both Yar’dua and Jonathan are politicians that are hardly known beyond the shore of their states. Furthermore, AC is another strong political party, with Atiku Abubakar, the current Vice President as its Presidential flag bearer. Ten other political parties adopted Atiku as the presidential flag-bearer of their parties. But because of the current sticky situation between the president ( Obasanjo) and the Vice President (Atiku), there is every likelihood that Atiku may be disqualified from contesting, or at best, he may honorable bow and back out. As at today, there are speculations that AC will merge with the ANPP to form a formidable party to wield enough influence that the PDP would not be able to contain.
But what are my fears if these are the expectation on ground?
Nigeria is a country where every rational thinker lives in constant fear of the unexpected. Both in 1999 and the 2003 general elections, there were outcry of mass rigging, so much that votes casts in some states are much more than the eligible voters that registered in the state in question. So why should I not fear for my country?
Of course when it comes to rigging elections in Nigeria, the presence of the international observers from the international community does not make any difference.
Rigging in Nigeria are not done by political thugs or the ordinary citizens/voters, neither is it executed by their “excellencies”. Riggings are done by the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC), the body that conducts, regulates and monitor the electoral process in the country. Riggings are executed by the police who are supposed to checkmate or deal with any foul political activities during the electoral process. Riggings are executed by the judiciary and street urchins. Riggings are monitored by the Economic and Financial Crime Commission (EFCC) and the Independent Corrupt Practices and other Related Matters (ICPC), the bodies assumed to be at the forefront of fighting corruption in the country. And more significantly, riggings are perpetrated and anchored on by some religious leaders.
With all these forces working together through various methods, adopting diverse strategies to achieve a common goal, one can only, but imaging how difficult it will be to track down the act of rigging in Nigeria.
But how do we know there were riggings? We know there were rigging because of the magnitude of the proceeds. We know there was rigging because it will be irrational to accept the possibility of obtaining 650,000 votes from a state that had only registered 500,000 eligible voters. We know…. We know…the lists are definitely not exhaustive. What is one to think?
With the election just around the corner, we only hope there will be a dramatic intervention in Nigeria. Moreover, if the international community fails to better grasp the internal dynamics and intricacies, there is a very real potential for the persistent levels of violence to escalate with major regional security implications.
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